February Lawrence Market Update
Real estate market updates in February feels like one of those way-too-early-to-tell-about-anything sort of updates. There's just not really enough data in the equation to tell much of a story quite yet. I'm going to lean on that wisdom in this month's post, but there is a story beginning to take shape!
Time will tell if it becomes the main story, or ends up an nothing more than a transitory pre-amble. Home sales in Lawrence continue to be be down. Way down. January '24 did not buck that trend, as sales were down from the same month at the beginning of 2023. Sales price is what appears to be of interest here: average price dropped again in January to an astounding $274.1K! Will this year's story be one of declining home values?
Recall from last month's update that the sales price average for December 2023 was the first month Lawrence had posted an average home sales price under $300,000 since January of 2022. This past month marks two months in a row well under that threshold. Average price in Jan '24 is a whopping 14% below the average price posted in January of '23. In fact, the average home price in town hasn't been this low since all the way back in October of 2021!
However, there's more to the story and I'll get into that after a quick look at last months numbers!
All of the stats that follow are sourced from the Lawrence MLS. What follows is a look at some numbers through the month of January 2024 within the city limits of Lawrence:
Month-over-Month
- January home sales decreased 40% from the previous month (41 vs 68)
- Average price decreased by 7.1% in January vs. the previous month, down to $274.1K
- Average Days-on-Market increased 43.5% from 23 to 33 Days-on-Market
- 56 homes were listed in January, an increase from 52 listed in December
- List-Price-to-Sales-Price Ratio for January was 97.8%
Year-over-Year
- Home sales were down 6.8% in January '24 vs January '23, a decrease of 3 homes sold
- Average Price was down YoY 14.1% compared to January '23
- Dollar Volume was down 20% vs January '23 for a total of $14.0M in the month
- The 56 homes listed last month was flat from January last year
YTD
- Check back next month for Year-to-Date stats
Active Properties
- There are 82 "Active" properties in Lawrence as of this writing; a decrease of 24.8% since my last market update.
- There are 76 properties currently listed as "Under Contract." This is an increase of 55.1% since my last market update
I don't usually focus much on the stats under "Active Properties" just above. But this month those numbers command some attention! Previously I mentioned that I do not believe Lawrence will see overall price declines in 2024. In fact in my "Predictions for 2024" post I'm predicting a modest 4-6% appreciation.
Diving into the properties currently listed as "under contract" in the MLS, the average list price of those properties set to close soon is $372.5K.
Even assuming a conservative 97% list-price-to-sale-price ratio, those homes should come in at an average sale price of around $361K. Let's assume a majority of these will close in February. If the ratio is even higher (it almost certainly will be higher) we will see our highest ever average price for a single month of home sales in Lawrence. Talk about a turn-around!
Barring any as-yet-unforeseen catastrophes, the story that will be told in 2024 will NOT be one of declining home sales. This month's update is likely only the transitory pre-amble I alluded to above.
Look for homes values to start a rapid increase from here on out. The soft price figures from December and January probably represent some stale inventory leftover from a relatively soft Fall Market last year. Interest rates are helping out, the sun is finally shining, and life situations change. Inventory will shake out and the Spring Market begins now!
Stay tuned to R+K Real Estate for great new content, updates, advice, opinions and more in 2024. We plan to continue our advance of transparency, consumer advocacy, and empowering our clients with alternate business models designed to provide high levels or real estate service with drastically reduced commissions!
-Ryan Desch, Broker/Owner R+K Real Estate Solutions
