Time for another Lawrence market update in May! 2024 is shaping up to be yet another year of price increases inside the city limits of Lawrence, KS. For those waiting for home prices to fall, the wait continues!
And it will continue. I can do little besides roll my eyes every single time I hear this. It's going to be a long wait for those holding on to this hope. And by the time it happens, prices will long have increased beyond the point they are today. This month's stats are giving us a good picture for the year as we make our way through this Spring Market. So far, my predictions for this is year are holding pretty tight.
While home prices did fall from record highs in March, the average price of nearly $370,000 for a home is a staggering number! And sales did take a big jump in April compared to March, up to 91 home sales in town for the month. However, listings are down for both the month of April compared to March and for the year-to-date. In fact, in 2024 we are down 14.5% from 2023 in homes listed for sale.
This is going to be a very important number to watch as we go. It means the market is very tight and very low housing inventory continues to be the main story line. April '24 saw a very large jump in sales vs. the same month a year ago. With few listings and more sales, it's no surprise that home values are now up 8.8% for the year.
All of the stats that follow are sourced from the Lawrence MLS. What follows is a look at some numbers through the month of April 2024 within the city limits of Lawrence:
Month-over-Month
- April home sales increased 62.5% from the previous month (91 vs 56)
- Average price decreased by 8.1%% in April vs. the previous month, down to $369.8K
- Average Days-on-Market decreased 32% from 25 to 17 Days-on-Market
- 124 homes were listed in April, a decrease from 128 listed in March
- List-Price-to-Sales-Price Ratio for April was 99.4%
Year-over-Year
- Home sales were up 37.9% in April '24 vs April '23, an increase of 25 homes sold
- Average Price was up YoY 5.7% compared to April '23
- Dollar Volume was up 45.9% vs April '23 for a total of $33.7M in the month
- The 124 homes listed last month was a 14.5% decrease vs. April '23
YTD
- Homes Sales are up 14.3% YTD through April; an increase of 31 homes sold this year
- Average Price is up 8.8% this year
- Average DOM is up from 23 Days to 26 Days, a 13% increase
- 391 Homes have been listed so far this year, a 4.3% increase over last year
- Dollar Volume is up 24.9% YTD for a total of $87.4M
Active Properties
- There are 98 "Active" properties in Lawrence as of this writing; an increase of 15.3% since my last market update.
- There are 136 properties currently listed as "Under Contract." This is an increase of 0.7% since my last market update
All told, the market numbers point to a pretty strong April. Back in January I predicted a 4-6% increase in home values this year. Right now the 8.8% increase exceeds my prediction. However, with interest rates remaining stubbornly high, the market may take a soft shift into the summer. This is what I expect to happen. I hold little optimism for any substantial rate relief for the remainder of the year. Interest rates are unlikely to fall until well into 2025.
Another way to visualize this market is to compare it with the Spring Market of 2022. In Lawrence, that time period was really the end of the super hot market. That summer, sudden rate increases effectively cooled the market. It heated up again in spring 2023, but fizzled a little as last year wore on. There have been drastically fewer listings and sales during this time.
Compared to 2022, home sales in Lawrence are down a whopping 22.5% in 2024 so far. Average price, however, is up 11.3% and market dollar volume is down 13.6%, YTD vs. the same period of 2022. Again, as I predicted in January, home sales will not recover to previous levels this year. And right now I'm predicting the very same softening of the market following Father's Day that we have had these past 2 years now. If you're thinking of listing in 2024, the best time to do so is now!
That being said, prices will continue to hold throughout the year with low inventory. If you're in the market to buy and are struggling to find what you're looking for, the summer and fall may present as an opportunity!
Stay tuned to R+K Real Estate for great new content, updates, advice, opinions and more in 2024. We plan to continue our advance of transparency, consumer advocacy, and empowering our clients with alternate business models designed to provide high levels or real estate service with drastically reduced commissions!
-Ryan Desch, Broker/Owner R+K Real Estate Solutions
