Fall is finally here! Are cooler outside temperatures contrasting with a hot real estate market? The best way I can answer that is "sort of." September saw declines in both overall home sales and average sales price. Average days-on-market shot up to 36 days for homes that closed last month. That's almost a 64% increase!
Homes closed in September mostly reflects contracts written in late July and August. That's typically a very "down" time of year in the market in Lawrence. After that, we often see what's referred to as the "September spike." We'll have to wait until next month to see if the numbers reflect a spike or not. In the meantime, a look at September's number provides a steady, but lukewarm picture.
Sales declined a whopping 20% from August to September. For the first time in a few months, average price also declined. The average sales price in September fell 9% to $330.9K. Listings are up both for last month and for the year, but sales for the year are flat. That means buyers have a few more choices when home shopping than they did earlier in the year and last year.
This backs up an observation made by many Realtors including myself, that buyers are being more discerning than they were in 2021 and 2022. Buyers are finally having more homes to choose from, and not quite as many other buyers to compete with. Homes that feature lots of updates and little-to-no deferred maintenance are going quickly and over asking price. Buyers are passing on homes that need updates and work.
All of the stats that follow are sourced from the Lawrence MLS. What follows is a look at some numbers through the month of August 2024 within the city limits of Lawrence:
Month-over-Month
- September home sales decreased 20% from the previous month (64 vs 80)
- Average price decreased by 9.0% in September vs. the previous month, down to $330.9K
- Average Days-on-Market increased 63.6% from 22 to 36 Days-on-Market
- 120 homes were listed in September, an increase from 101 listed in August
- List-Price-to-Sales-Price Ratio for August was 97.9%
- Average Per-Square-Foot in September was 203/sq.ft. which is an increase of 7.4% from August
Year-over-Year
- Home sales were down 4.5% in September '24 vs September '23, a decrease of 3 homes sold
- Average Price was down YoY 5.3% compared to September '23
- Dollar Volume was down 9.4% vs September '23 for a total of $21.2M in the month
- The 120 homes listed last month was a 7.1% increase vs. September '23
- Average Per-Square-Foot was up 7.4% in September '24 vs. September '23
YTD
- Homes Sales are up 0.3% YTD through September; an increase of 2 homes sold this year
- Average Price is up 5.0% this year
- Average DOM is up from 17 Days to 22 Days, a 29.4% increase
- 1,008 Homes have been listed so far this year, a 10.4% increase over last year
- Dollar Volume is up 5.2% YTD for a total of $242.9M
- Average Per-Square-Foot for the year is at $188/sq.ft., up from $175/sq.ft. in 2023
Active Properties
- There are 164 "Active" properties in Lawrence as of this writing; an increase of 5.1% since my last market update.
- There are 95 properties currently listed as "Under Contract." This is an increase of 25% since my last market update
The "September spike" might be hiding in those 95 properties currently under contract. While there was certainly an increase in market activity following Labor Day weekend, the momentum seems to this author to have subsided momentarily. The interest rate environment has been a bit of a roller-coaster. While we did see some rate relief last month, the 10 year treasury took a bit of an upswing recently and the effect seems to be a bit of cooling in buyer activity heading into October.
From today, there are only 2 and a half months left to go in 2024. I believe my predictions from January will come in on price. We should hold steady right at a 5-6% increase in home values for the year. Home sales should see an increase this fall over last fall, but not by much. We are neck-and-neck with 2023 on home sales in Lawrence. We'll need a strong finish to ensure more home sales this year vs. last.
If you're a home buyer sitting on the fence, that should be reason enough to get off the fence now. There has been an increase in listing activity, so there are more homes to choose from. I would recommend seeing this an opportunity. If you are looking to sell in this market, time and attention should be on making your home 100% market-ready. The buyers you will be competing for are much more choosey than they've been these past couple years. If your price is too high, they will pass and look elsewhere. Resist the urge to over-price!
Stay tuned to R+K Real Estate for great new content, updates, advice, opinions and more in 2024. We plan to continue our advance of transparency, consumer advocacy, and empowering our clients with alternate business models designed to provide high levels or real estate service with drastically reduced commissions!
-Ryan Desch, Broker/Owner R+K Real Estate Solutions
