Hard to believe we're already more than halfway through 2024! Summer is usually that time of year when the Spring Market ends and real estate activity begins a slow decent into a slower pace for the remainder of the year. So, did the market hold it's momentum in June or did we end the 1st half of the year by slowing down?
Well, how does the word "crashing" sound? It's the only word I can think of to describe the Lawrence real estate market's end of the 2nd Quarter. A stunning hitting-the-brick-wall! We started 2024 on a dismal slow note. Then March came along and the Spring Market ramped up to record levels, notably on average price. After that we saw a slow retreat, not much. Then June came and wow. Just wow.
Home sales in June plummeted 31.7% from May. Average price declined 5.2%. Average days-on-market increased 31.6%. The number of homes listed declined 8.5%. However I think it's important to note that the list-to-sale-price ratio was is at 100.6% of list price in June. So it's important to always remember that one month is just that, one month. Stats can vary wildly from month to month and a slow June doesn't necessarily mean anything about what will happen in the year's second half.
All of the stats that follow are sourced from the Lawrence MLS. What follows is a look at some numbers through the month of June 2024 within the city limits of Lawrence:
Month-over-Month
- June home sales decreased 31.7% from the previous month (84 vs 123)
- Average price decreased by 5.2% in June vs. the previous month, down to $334.9K
- Average Days-on-Market increased 31.6% from 13 to 19 Days-on-Market
- 156 homes were listed in June, an increase from 124 listed in May
- List-Price-to-Sales-Price Ratio for June was 100.6%
Year-over-Year
- Home sales were down 28.8% in June '24 vs June '23, a decrease of 34 homes sold
- Average Price was down YoY 1.7% compared to June '23
- Dollar Volume was down 27.6% vs June '23 for a total of $28.1M in the month
- The 156 homes listed last month was a 20.9% increase vs. June '23
YTD
- Homes Sales are up 0.4% YTD through June; an increase of 2 homes sold this year
- Average Price is up 5.2% this year
- Average DOM is up from 16 Days to 21 Days, a 31.3% increase
- 677 Homes have been listed so far this year, a 10.1% increase over last year
- Dollar Volume is up 5.1% YTD for a total of $159.5M
Active Properties
- There are 159 "Active" properties in Lawrence as of this writing; an increase of 34.7% since my last market update.
- There are 92 properties currently listed as "Under Contract." This is an decrease of 10.2% since my last market update
Recall that overall, 2023 was a pretty soft year in home sales inside Lawrence. Up until this point 2024 was shaping up to be a much stronger year. In June we gave nearly all that momentum back. Instead of being up in overall home sales, we are largely flat with last year. Average price is still up though, to the tune of 4.6%. Recall that in January I predicted a 4-6% increase in price this year.
Summer 2024 is shaping up to be pretty quiet. There are whispers of a rate decrease in late summer or early fall. Right now rates appear to be retreating ever-so-slightly. If they continue a downward trend, there should be fairly good market activity in the year's 2nd half. But I have to advise caution at this point. While I do believe my earlier predictions regarding price will bear out, I have far less confidence in my predictions on overall sales in town. I had predicted a 10-12% increase in sales this year after last year's nearly 25% decline. We may not gain any ground at this current rate.
Listings are up, but sales aren't exactly following suit. This is resulting in an increase in inventory. The Lawrence Board of Realtors last update reported 2.5 months-of-supply. That's probably the highest it's been since well before the onset of the Pandemic. The 159 active properties in the Lawrence MLS is a substantial increase in available properties since my last market update. A quick glance at the MLS shows a number of active listings dropping their asking price.
The 2nd half of 2024 is starting out on very thin ice. It's going to be very interesting to see if any rate relief is enough to make difference as the we get past back-to-school. Right now, I have a tepid optimism that we should end the year with more sales and a higher average price than 2023. But, it's a long road to get there. Either way, it'll be fun to watch!
Stay tuned to R+K Real Estate for great new content, updates, advice, opinions and more in 2024. We plan to continue our advance of transparency, consumer advocacy, and empowering our clients with alternate business models designed to provide high levels or real estate service with drastically reduced commissions!
-Ryan Desch, Broker/Owner R+K Real Estate Solutions
