The year is almost over which means very soon it will be time to see if my predictions for 2024 came true! But first, let's take a look at what happened in November this year.
Both homes sales and new listings were way down. Only 65 homes sold inside Lawrence last month, a drop of over 26% from October! To go along with that, average price declined slightly as well. Homes sold for an average price of $325.5K, a dip of 4.9% from the previous month.
While the market does seem to be down a little bit from highs and gains realized earlier in the year, the market is still largely defined by low inventory. Only 130 homes are listed as "Active" today. Another way to look at the numbers is to calculate both absorption rate and months of supply. Absorption rate tells us how many homes are selling per month, and months-of-supply tells us how many months of housing inventory there is.
Through 2024, the absorption rate is 77 homes per month. This means that right now, there are 1.7 months-of-supply in Lawrence. If no more homes came on the market, in less than two months there would be none left. For context, a "balanced" market is 4-6 months of supply. Anything under 2 is consider a "Seller's Market." Despite a bit of a slow down for the end of the year, the market is still pretty warm relatively speaking.
All of the stats that follow are sourced from the Lawrence MLS. What follows is a look at some market numbers specifically within the city limits of Lawrence:
Month-over-Month
- November home sales decreased 26.1% from the previous month (65 vs 88)
- Average price decreased by 4.9% in November vs. the previous month, down to $325.5K
- Average Days-on-Market is flat at 26 Days-on-Market
- 66 homes were listed in November, a decrease from 108 listed in October
- List-Price-to-Sales-Price Ratio for November was 98.8%
- Average Per-Square-Foot in September was 188/sq.ft.
Year-over-Year
- Home sales were up 18.2% in November '24 vs November '23, an increase of 10 homes sold
- Average Price was down YOY 9.5% compared to November '23
- Dollar Volume was up 7.1% vs November '23 for a total of $21.2M in the month
- The 66 homes listed last month was a 10.8% increase vs. November '23
- Average Per-Square-Foot was up 8.7% in November '24 vs. November '23
YTD
- Homes Sales are up 2.9% YTD through November; an increase of 24 homes sold this year
- Average Price is up 3.6% this year
- Average DOM is up from 18 Days to 23 Days, a 27.8% increase
- 1,185 Homes have been listed so far this year, a 9.2% increase over last year
- Dollar Volume is up 6.6% YTD for a total of $294.6M
- Average Per-Square-Foot for the year is at $188/sq.ft., up from $175/sq.ft. in 2023
Active Properties
- There are 130 "Active" properties in Lawrence as of this writing.
- There are 72 properties currently listed as "Under Contract."
Back in January I made some predictions for the year regarding sales and price. While I'm very close on my predictions for average price, I wasn't quite correct on number of home sales. I had predicted a rise in average price of 4-6% and an increase in sales of 10-15%. While home prices have risen 3.6% (very close to my lower bound) home sales have only increased 2.9%.
I think this is due to interest rate volatility and the "lock-in" effect. While we have seen some rate relief in 2024, it's not quite what many people had hoped for. Rates did go down, then they went back up a little bit. That volatility seemed to keep both buyers and sellers fit to sit on the fence just a while longer. This will likely continue to shake out in 2025. Rates should come down just enough that everyone eases up a bit and gets used to it.
But overall, the year has pretty much played out as expected. There haven't been any real surprises in the Lawrence market. Home values increased. The number of new listings continues to stagnate and low inventory prevails. The year should end stronger than last year and should continue into an early spring market, barring any really bad cold spells.
I don't expect much to rock this boat as we enter the new year. It should pretty much keep on as it is today. Accurately homes will sell quickly. Over-priced homes will sit for months. Buyers will be pickier when it comes to getting through inspections. Homes with lots of deferred maintenance and needed updates will be highly penalized on price. And as always, there is no "bubble" waiting to burst on the horizon.
What will be interesting to see is how the market evolves in response to the changes following the National Association of Realtors class action settlement that established new rules back in August. I am seeing more and more consumers knowledgeable about the fallout and the changes. More sellers than ever before are searching for "discount broker in Lawrence, KS" on Google. Sellers and going to continue to search for brokers who intend to negotiate commission on their behalf. While change comes slowly, it most certain comes. Negotiating commission in Lawrence, KS will be a topic to watch in 2025!
Stay tuned to R+K Real Estate for great new content, updates, advice, opinions and more in 2024. We plan to continue our advance of transparency, consumer advocacy, and empowering our clients with alternate business models designed to provide high levels or real estate service with drastically reduced commissions!
-Ryan Desch, Broker/Owner R+K Real Estate Solutions
