We are already nearing the halfway point for 2024! The Lawrence real estate market continues the game of slow and steady, a theme I predicted back at the beginning of the year.
Home sales continue to increase this year over last year. But, recall that last year saw a massive decline in home sales. That was largely due to a rising interest rate environment that followed a prolonged, historically low rate environment. Instead of selling, home owners were largely staying put. Rates haven't fallen in any significant way, but in a way the market has to chug along, driven by low housing supply.
Home sales increased in May from April by a whopping 32.6% inside the city of Lawrence. However, average price saw a slight decline of 4.4% down to $354.9K. That actually makes two consecutive months of price declines this spring after April saw an 8.1% decline from March. That's still historically high, and the YTD average home price has increased 5.2%. It's also interesting to point out that the average price in May of 2024 was actually a slight decline from May of 2023 at a -0.9%. Average Days-on-Market remain extremely low at 13 days one average last month.
All of the stats that follow are sourced from the Lawrence MLS. What follows is a look at some numbers through the month of May 2024 within the city limits of Lawrence:
Month-over-Month
- May home sales increased 32.6% from the previous month (122 vs 92)
- Average price decreased by 4.4% in May vs. the previous month, down to $354.9K
- Average Days-on-Market decreased 23.5% from 17 to 13 Days-on-Market
- 121 homes were listed in May, a decrease from 128 listed in April
- List-Price-to-Sales-Price Ratio for May was 99.95%
Year-over-Year
- Home sales were up 2.5% in May '24 vs May '23, an increase of 3 homes sold
- Average Price was down YoY 0.9% compared to May '23
- Dollar Volume was up 1.6% vs May '23 for a total of $43.3M in the month
- The 121 homes listed last month was a 16.6% decrease vs. May '23
YTD
- Homes Sales are up 10.4% YTD through May; an increase of 35 homes sold this year
- Average Price is up 5.2% this year
- Average DOM is up from 18 Days to 22 Days, a 22% increase
- 517 Homes have been listed so far this year, a 6.4% increase over last year
- Dollar Volume is up 16.2% YTD for a total of $131.2M
Active Properties
- There are 118 "Active" properties in Lawrence as of this writing; an increase of 20.4% since my last market update.
- There are 102 properties currently listed as "Under Contract." This is an decrease of 33.3% since my last market update
So far, my predictions for 2024 are stunningly accurate. In January I predicted a 10-15% rise in sales and a 4-6% rise in values. As of the end of May we're sitting at a 10.4% increase in home sales and prices have increase 5.2% for the year. Above I described the market as "slow and steady." While that's true overall, it's actually been a bit of a roller coaster ride. The year started off dreadfully quiet, then March shot things forward like a sling shot, and since then it's been a slow retreat off of a record high in average price.
Since my last update there's been both a significant increase in active properties and a decrease in properties currently under contract. This points to a continued, slow tapering off of spring as we head into June. This typically happens every year. The hottest month is either March, April, or May. The market then spends the rest of the year gradually backing off that high, but not retreating enough to dip below the previous year.
This all points to a strange situation where we have both volatility and stability. Market behavior is fairly difficult to predict right now and seems to change by the week. For us, one week the phone seems to ring off the hook, the next it's eerily quiet. For now, there are enough buyers able to keep up with the few sellers out there choosing to sell. If and when rates do go down, this delicate balance is likely to shift.
I'm not predicting that to happen this year. Rates are unlikely to change anytime soon. I think we've settled into the market as it is for the year. Prices and sales will largely hold as we enter the summer months. While the summer and fall markets are unlikely to hot, they'll still be strong. Sellers should view the remainder of the year as a great opportunity to test the market. 2025 is still way too far away to accurately predict!
Stay tuned to R+K Real Estate for great new content, updates, advice, opinions and more in 2024. We plan to continue our advance of transparency, consumer advocacy, and empowering our clients with alternate business models designed to provide high levels or real estate service with drastically reduced commissions!
-Ryan Desch, Broker/Owner R+K Real Estate Solutions
