Spring weather in Kansas is known to be unpredictable. Hot one day, cold the next. It can make simple tasks like just deciding what to wear frustrating! This year's Spring Market is shaping up just like the weather. And like an unexpectedly cool Spring, the real estate market is giving us some rather shocking stats. Let's dive in!
Before we get too deep, context is always important. Just because sales fall, it doesn't mean the market is shifting to favor buyers. This is still a very strong Seller's Market! But overall, sales in 2023 are down a whopping 33.4% inside Lawrence. Wow! Despite that, or perhaps as expected, the average price is up about 2.9% to $325K. On average, homes are selling above their asking price.
Low inventory is like the broken record nobody's bothered to get back on track. It continues to plague any buyer's home search. With rising rates, there are fewer buyers out today than there were a year ago. But the buyers who remain in the market are dead-serious. Multiple-offer scenarios are still common, and buyers are competing to win. Home sellers, for now, remain firmly in control.
One stat outlined below that was really shocking was that sales actually declined month-over-month from March to April. Usually we see a pretty steady increase month by month from January through June, and then steady declines through the end of the year. Rarely does April see so few home sales as we saw this year. And so far year-to-date, the market is down 33.4% in total sales. Ouch!
All of the stats that follow are sourced from the Lawrence MLS. What follows is a look at some numbers through the month of April 2023 within the city limits of Lawrence:
Month-over-Month
- April home sales decreased 8.6% from the previous month (64 vs 70)
- Average price increased by 17.5% in April vs. the previous month; Median sales price dipped 1.4% to $275K
- Median Days-on-Market dropped in homes closed in April to 3 days from 5 for homes closed in March
- 136 homes were listed in April, an increase from 109 listed in March
- List-Price-to-Sales-Price Ratio for April was 100.5%, up from 99.5%
Year-over-Year
- Home sales were down 47% in April'23 vs April '22, a drop of 57 homes sold
- Average Price is up YoY at $355K; Median decline to 275K to from April '22 to $320K
- Dollar Volume was down 45% vs April '22 for a total of $22.7M in the month
- List-Price-to-Sales-Price Ratio decreased to 100.5% in February '23 from 102.6% a year ago
- The 136 homes listed last month was a decrease from 142 listed in March last year
YTD
- Home sales are down 33.4% for the year through April (213 vs 320)
- Average price so far in 2023 is up 2.9% to $325K vs the same period last year
- Median Price is down 6% to $282K
- Median DOM is roughly flat vs a year ago
- Total Homes Listed this year equals 359; a decline of 20% through April '22
- Total Dollar Volume in 2023 is down 31.4%; At the end of April h last year the Lawrence market totaled $101.1M and so far this year we're sitting at $69.3M
Active Properties
- There are 80 "Active" properties in Lawrence as of this writing
- There are 144 properties currently listed as "Under Contract." This is an increase of 56.5% since my last market update
That last line maybe features some hope for the market: There has been a big increase in homes showing as "under contract." Many of those will close this month. Last year the month of May had 136 sales. But even if May ends up flat compared to May of last year, this year's market already has some huge ground to make up.
Back in January I predicted that this year there would be fewer than 1,000 homes sold inside Lawrence. At our current rate, even if things improve substantially, we're well on pace to sell fewer than 900! I actually believe we'll beat 900 homes sold by the end of the year, but I also still believe my original prediction. 2023 will be the first year since the Great Recession that Lawrence has sold so few houses.
But there is some hope! There are some economic indicators showing a slight decrease in inflation, and if that bears out we shouldn't see much in the way of rate hikes going forward. A true optimist would be hoping they actually come down as the year goes on. This will bode well for a more stable Summer and Fall Market than what we saw last year. In the Fall, rising rates shocked the market into a huge Q4 decline. In theory, that shouldn't happen this year and there will be more market activity like in previous years. Only time will tell so be sure to check back with our monthly market updates!
Stay tuned to R+K Real Estate for great new content, updates, advice, opinions and more in 2022. We plan to continue our advance of transparency, consumer advocacy, and empowering our clients with alternate business models designed to provide high levels or real estate service with drastically reduced commissions!
-Ryan Desch, Broker/Owner R+K Real Estate Solutions
